Miami Herald FL Poll: Romney 51%-Obama 45%

Mitt Romney has maintained a solid lead over President Barack Obama in the latest Miami Herald/El Nuevo Herald poll of likely voters who favor the Republican by six percentage points.

Romney’s strengths: independent voters and more crossover support from Democrats relative to the Republicans who back Obama, according to the survey conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research.

Romney’s crossover appeal is fueled by strong support in rural North Florida, a conservative bastion where a relatively high percentage of Democrats often vote Republican in presidential election years.

“I’m pretty convinced Romney’s going to win Florida,” said Mason-Dixon pollster Brad Coker, who conducted the 800-likely voter survey from Tuesday through Thursday.

“Will it be fivepoints? Maybe. Will it be three points? Possibly,” Coker said, of what he expects Romney’s margin will be. “I don’t think it’s going to be a recount … I don’t think we’re going to have a recount-race here.”

Miami Herald FL Poll: Romney 51%-Obama 45%

Mitt Romney has maintained a solid lead over President Barack Obama in the latest Miami Herald/El Nuevo Herald poll of likely voters who favor the Republican by six percentage points.

Romney’s strengths: independent voters and more crossover support from Democrats relative to the Republicans who back Obama, according to the survey conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research.

Romney’s crossover appeal is fueled by strong support in rural North Florida, a conservative bastion where a relatively high percentage of Democrats often vote Republican in presidential election years.

“I’m pretty convinced Romney’s going to win Florida,” said Mason-Dixon pollster Brad Coker, who conducted the 800-likely voter survey from Tuesday through Thursday.

“Will it be fivepoints? Maybe. Will it be three points? Possibly,” Coker said, of what he expects Romney’s margin will be. “I don’t think it’s going to be a recount … I don’t think we’re going to have a recount-race here.”

Dems: Obama is winning Florida. Sporadically.

The end of the 2012 campaign is giving greater attention than ever to the term "sporadic voters" or the more insidery "sporadics."

In the words of Democrats, the sporadic voter is one who doesn't vote in three of the past three elections. He or she picks and chooses, maybe shows up for a presidential race. So a 0 voter (0 votes in 3 elections) voter is highly sporadic. A 3 (one who votes in 3 elections straight) is highly reliable and not sporadic at all.

This year, for President Obama, it's imperative that the "sporadics" appear because they seem to support Obama more than Mitt Romney.

Consider: many national, and a few state polls, show that Obama is losing to Romney in surveys of likely voters (the screen to determine likely voters varies by pollster). But Obama often wins with straight-up registered voters, those who can vote but may or may not.

Democrats say they're winning the sporadics, getting them to turn out in early voting in Florida. They're 0s over Republicans 43-29% and 1s by 47-30% (click the image to see the data, click here for more on early ballots cast). Democrats say that gives them an edge because they're banking unlikely votes early, allowing them to hold their own as they turn out likely voters. We haven't asked the Republicans, but chances are they'll disagree (if anything, because of the you-choose-A-I-choose-B game theory of campaigning)

The strategy of team Obama yields two takeaways: 1) it sure knows how to mine data 2) the president has a narrow path to win when he needs to rely on unlikely voters.

 

Questions and answers for voters on absentee ballots, early voting and Election Day

Election Day is Tuesday, and if long early-voting lines are any indication, voters should be armed with patience.

The ballot is long — 12 pages in some cities — and complicated. And a presidential election always leads to high turnout.

Despite requests from Democrats and Democratic-leaning groups, particularly in South Florida, Republican Gov. Rick Scott told the Associated Press late Thursday that he will not extend early voting, which ends at 7 p.m. Saturday. The U.S. Department of Justice announced Friday that it will monitor Miami-Dade early voting to ensure the county is complying with a federal law protecting minorities’ voting rights.

To make things a little easier, The Miami Herald compiled a list of answers to frequently asked questions about voting. The answers come from the Miami-Dade and Broward elections supervisor’s offices.

The best advice for voters: Do your homework. Research the races and questions on the lengthy ballot. Find your polling place. If you’re voting early, check the wait times online before you go.

And maybe bring a book.

Read the Q-and-A here.

UPDATED Monroe County elections supervisor asks Gov. Rick Scott to extend early-voting hours

UPDATE: See Florida Secretary of State Ken Detzner's response to Sawyer after the jump.

Harry Sawyer Jr., the Monroe County supervisor of elections, sent Gov. Rick Scott a short letter Friday formally requesting an extension of early voting into Sunday.

Scott, a Republican, told the Associated Press on Thursday night that he does not plan to expand the early-voting period, which ends at 7 p.m. Saturday. Democrats and Democratic-leaning groups -- and former Gov. Charlie Crist -- had urged Scott to extend the hours, citing long lines in counties such as Miami-Dade.

But Sawyer, a Republican who is not seeking reelection, said he thought it important to make the request anyway because fewer voters in the Florida Keys have cast ballots early.

"We're seeing a reduction in the number of people voting," Sawyer said. "I've talked to several people [who have said], 'I saw the line, I just kept driving.'"

He characterized lines in the county's five early-voting sites as "sporadic." He blamed the lengthy ballot and a law Scott signed last year cutting the number of early-voting days to eight from 14. The number of maximum early-voting hours, 96, remains the same in statute, though voters had 120 hours to vote in 2008 after Crist extended early voting.

Sawyer had initially resisted complying with the state's request earlier this year to agree to fewer, 12-hour early-voting days. A federal court later ruled that new hours did not discriminate against African-American voters.

"The days should have never have been reduced," Sawyer lamented Friday. "The days are much more important to the process than the hours."

Scott's administration, through an elections division spokesman, has said reports from elections supervisors elsewhere in the state have been positive.

Read Detzner's response after the jump.

Ground game? There's a killer whale of a Romney app for that: ORCA

Out: clip-boards, pencils and phone calls to headquarters.

In: iPhones, iPads and an app that, Republican Mitt Romney's campaign says, will allow its field staffers and volunteers communicate in near-real time with Boston hq. That way, say, honchos in the Northeast could know in real time if the campaign is missing its targeted voters and key precincts. After a few database queries, they could then find out who hasn't voted and contact them.

The one mystery of the whole concept: Why they named it ORCA. This Romney-camp memo doesn't say. Here it is:

PolitiFact Florida: Fact-checking Romney's Spanish TV ad

A Spanish-language TV ad from Mitt Romney starts off with a question for South Florida voters:  "Who supports Barack Obama?"

The ad provides three notorious answers: Chávez, Castro and Ernesto "Che" Guevara.

The Miami Herald translated the ad, "Chávez Por Obama," which aired on three Spanish-language TV stations on Oct. 30, 2012. The ad mixes footage from interviews with Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez and the niece of Cuban dictator Fidel Castro with news headlines about a provocative email.

Narrator: "Who supports Barack Obama?"

Chávez video: "If I were American, I’d vote for Obama."

Narrator: "Raúl Castro’s daughter, Mariela Castro, would vote for Obama."

Castro video: "I would vote for President Obama."

Narrator: "And to top it off, Obama’s Environmental Protection Agency sent emails for Hispanic Heritage Month with a photo of Che Guevara."

Chávez: "If Obama were from Barlovento (a Venezuelan town), he’d vote for Chávez."

Romney: "I’m Mitt Romney, and I approve this message."

The Chavez clips are from a September 2012 interview in which he also called Obama "a good guy." Mariela Castro, a supporter of gay rights, said she would vote for Obama in May 2012 following Obama announcing his support of gay marriage.

Here, PolitiFact Florida wanted to check the claim that the EPA sent emails for Hispanic Heritage Month, which runs Sept. 15 to Oct. 15, with a picture of Guevara, a guerrilla leader and Marxist revolutionary. 

PolitiFact: Did Mack ask for stimulus money?

Make no mistake, U.S. Rep. Connie Mack, R-Fort Myers, opposes the federal stimulus.

He’s decried President Barack Obama’s American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009, which poured $787 billion into the economy, a "waste of money" and a move "to ignore the will of the American people."

He’s released media statements and ads accusing Obama and Sen. Bill Nelson, whom he wants to unseat from the U.S. Senate, of pushing a stimulus that wasted "millions in taxpayer dollars" on things like cocaine-addicted monkeys. (PolitiFact pegged that ad as Mostly False.)

"I’ve said time and time again, we cannot spend our way to prosperity," Mack said in a 2010 media release about the stimulus.

That’s why, on the night of the Oct. 17 Senate debate, Nelson was prepared to use Mack’s own political weight against him.

Read more here.

Bill Clinton: "I'm not sure there are 81 communists left in Cuba."

Former President Bill Clinton campaigned today for Democrat Patrick Murphy and mocked Republican Congressman Allen West in the northern fringes of South Florida. But what Clinton said there might not play so well farther south, in Miami-Dade.

At the center of Clinton's shtick: West's comment that there are 81 communist Democrats in the U.S. House. Clinton milked some laughs from the crowd.

"I didn't know there were 81 communists outside of Cuba anywhere in this part of the world," he said, according to a web video making the Republican rounds. "I'm not sure there are 81 communists left in Cuba."

Mr. 305 joins the Prez in the 954: Miami rapper Pitbull slated to appear with Obama in Hollywood, FL

We're hearing that Miami native/rap sensation Pitbull is scheduled to appear with President Obama at his Sunday Hollywood reelection rally. That's one way to pack 'em in.

It seems that Pitbull, aka Mr. 305/Mr. Worldwide (Armando Cristian Pérez, to be exact), might also be Mr. Bipartisan. He, or someone much like him, was spotted at Sen. Marco Rubio's 2010 election victory party at the Biltmore in Coral Gables. But that's more rumor than his scheduled Sunday appearance.

And make no mistake: McArthur High School's football field in Hollywood is nothing like the Biltmore.

This might be President Obama's last re-election stop in Florida. There's only one scheduled so far. The Obama campaign has made more stops in Ohio recently, which indicates the president is putting more stock in his chances in that battleground state. And though behind in the polls, he certainly hasn't given up on Florida.

Broward is Obama country through and through. Consider: Democrats have a 156,000 in-person early vote edge over Republicans. About 86,000 of that comes from Broward County.