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War Room poll: Mitt Romney blowing Newt Gingrich away 40-30 in FL. Mack commands Senate race

War Room Logisitics, the Republican polling and consulting firm in Gainesville, reported conducting another large robo-poll sample*** (1,632) in Florida on Jan. 27 (a day after the debate) that shows Mitt Romney is in a commanding lead in the Republican presidential race. Connie Mack is doing even better in the Republican Senate race. And a majority of Republicans support casino-style gaming.

The results:

Mitt Romney: 40%

Newt Gingrich: 30%

Rick Santorum: 15%

Ron Paul    6%

UND: 8%

Is it over for Gingrich? War Room's consultant, Alex Patton, says it sure looks like it. But things aren't always as they appear. His statement:

"I give up predicting anything this election cycle with 8 percent still undecided and a MOE of 2.5, theoretically Gingrich is still within striking distance. However, the trend is not in his favor.

"The last two debates saw Romney find his voice and get his sea legs under him after a lethargic South Carolina performance. The debates were critical to Romney's lead, and whomever is Mitt Romney's debate coach deserves a raise.

"I also think Romney is benefiting from weeks of unfettered tv time and months of field work in Florida.

"It all appears to be coming together and breaking his way."

Senate race (which doesn't have a vote until August):

Connie Mack: 33%

George LeMieux: 6%

Adam Hasner: 3%

Mike McCalister: 3%

Craig Miller: 2%

UND: 52%

As for casino-style gaming, about 52% of Republicans support it; 39% oppose. The press release is here.

Download WRL-writeup-01272012

***Note: The poll, though consistent with other opinion surveys, does have a few issues worth of note. It's 57% female, but the GOP electorate is likely to be under or about 50%. It's also 60% senior citizens, though exit polls from the ’08 primary show about a third of the electorate were elderly. It’s also about 4.5% Hispanic, but the ballot-casting Hispanic electorate in a Republican primary ranges from 11-14%.

Patton says he based his figures on an estimated turnout model for this race. And, figuring the big lead of Romney's and the similarity to other polls, he stands by the numbers.

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