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War Room poll: Mitt Romney blowing Newt Gingrich away 40-30 in FL. Mack commands Senate race

War Room Logisitics, the Republican polling and consulting firm in Gainesville, reported conducting another large robo-poll sample*** (1,632) in Florida on Jan. 27 (a day after the debate) that shows Mitt Romney is in a commanding lead in the Republican presidential race. Connie Mack is doing even better in the Republican Senate race. And a majority of Republicans support casino-style gaming.

The results:

Mitt Romney: 40%

Newt Gingrich: 30%

Rick Santorum: 15%

Ron Paul    6%

UND: 8%

Is it over for Gingrich? War Room's consultant, Alex Patton, says it sure looks like it. But things aren't always as they appear. His statement:

"I give up predicting anything this election cycle with 8 percent still undecided and a MOE of 2.5, theoretically Gingrich is still within striking distance. However, the trend is not in his favor.

"The last two debates saw Romney find his voice and get his sea legs under him after a lethargic South Carolina performance. The debates were critical to Romney's lead, and whomever is Mitt Romney's debate coach deserves a raise.

"I also think Romney is benefiting from weeks of unfettered tv time and months of field work in Florida.

"It all appears to be coming together and breaking his way."

Senate race (which doesn't have a vote until August):

Connie Mack: 33%

George LeMieux: 6%

Adam Hasner: 3%

Mike McCalister: 3%

Craig Miller: 2%

UND: 52%

As for casino-style gaming, about 52% of Republicans support it; 39% oppose. The press release is here.

Download WRL-writeup-01272012

***Note: The poll, though consistent with other opinion surveys, does have a few issues worth of note. It's 57% female, but the GOP electorate is likely to be under or about 50%. It's also 60% senior citizens, though exit polls from the ’08 primary show about a third of the electorate were elderly. It’s also about 4.5% Hispanic, but the ballot-casting Hispanic electorate in a Republican primary ranges from 11-14%.

Patton says he based his figures on an estimated turnout model for this race. And, figuring the big lead of Romney's and the similarity to other polls, he stands by the numbers.

Comments

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Euthyphro

Oh, dear, the War Room hath spoken! I guess Floridians are moved by Romney's insistence that he "knows how the economy works". He makes it sound as if the economy is some exotic outboard motor that runs on nail polish remover and that only a handful of experts can operate. Look here, Pilgrim, Obama can lay hands on the best business minds in our galaxy if he wants to know "how the economy works". Actually, he knows very well how it works and he is succeeding in "socializing" it. So let's stop yielding this point to Romney as if it had any weight whatever. He gave Massachusetts Romney Care, he changed parties and voted for Paul Tzongas (YIKES!) and he has this penchant for smiling benignly as he lies to your face. NRO has better causes to fight for and I, for one, would hope you'd all turn to them. You're not doing this one much good at all.

Lili

Lol. The pollster pretty much admits manipulating the numbers in Romney's favor and this is suppose to be taken seriously? TOO FUNNY!!

icanmakeupbettershit

WRL is a RPOF front organization and should not be taken seriously. Check out WRL's poll in '08 predicting 42% of "very liberal" respondents supporting McCain, and 28% of blacks supporting McCain!! http://www.pr.com/press-release/87386
No wonder they don't report or release cross tabs anymore.

randy

It's time for the Newt-ons to get off the blogs.

Weighting the polls for those factors won't significantly change the results.

It appears Mitt is about to close the sale in Florida.

David G.

Great, Florida GOP is starting a bolshevik revolution by supporting Mitt Romney!!! I thought this was the party of the tea party which is anti-communism! FLORIDA DON'T MESS THIS UP!!! A vote for Romney is a vote for a-welfare-communist-socialist-government- health care-mandate GOP establishment candidate!

Ghp

What a god awful poll. It even admits to having a ton of flaws!

Dan Stojadinovic

For an alternative in the US Senate from Florida check out this outsider: http://Back2Liberty.org

PS: It was not on the list above! (Ignored by establishment media (good thing))

Chrispkonkol

As long as Newt makes a strong showing, I don't think it would prevent Newt from winning the nomination since he is well ahead of Romney in the polls nationally. The liberal press has been saying Romney has it sewn up so much that they sound like they are a lobbying arm of Goldman Sachs.

Saul Alinsky

The asterisks on this poll pretty much say: "The polling results above are completely worthless, of course, but we don't care. We are the Chamber of Commerce. Wait till you see what we report in the general election! We count on our ability to tell the electorate what it thinks. When Obama wins again, we can always blame it on voter fraud. Yes, indeed, we can do anything we want. We are the Chamber of Commerce."

Jean

The whinning Sarah Palin crowd, whinning just like Newt who says that the Florida debates were rigged. Only Romney can beat Obama in the general election. That is what is statistically shown. You all need to take your ball and go home. The fat lady is about to sing. Romney will lead our nation to the great land of the past, and you will be greatful.

Tony m

Amen Jean Romney Owned Newt in the last two debates. Newtite bots need to whine let them have their space just pass them a hanky.Romney 2012!

Lynn Otting

Romney will not beat President O'bama. The bible-belt southern states will go blue for the first time since the Reagan Revolution. Half of those dedicated evangelical republicans will not even go to the polls or will vote for the lesser of the two evils. As sad or mean as that may sound to you, it is the truth.

Jean

Well, if those evangelical republicans think that Obama would be better for the country than to vote for Romney, I guess they will have to sit at home and pray for our souls. They will get another four years and this country will no longer be recognizable. Newt can not win, but they need to reconsider the alternative and take their chances on Romney who can and will win the states that were blue for Obama (Ohio, PA, NV, CO etc) but will turn red for Romney.

jerry griggs

Newt is the stronger candidate in the long run,romney will divide the Gop more.People know Newt but there is plenty of gabbage with romney to come out.The teaparty and christian conservatives love Newt and he can mobolize them more than romney ever could.The establishment wants a puppet like romney but will lose because they are not listening to their base just like they did Dole and Mccain.Romney is hated in many circles including the independence,how can you vote for anyone who is not true to himself if he can't be true to you and romney personifies untruths.

jerry griggs

PS..because of the terrible things the establishment is doing to their own as they are with Gingrich don't be surprise if you see a third party emerge within the GOP. Enough already they say!

Jim

A 3rd party might be a good thing, without the Evangelicals the Republican Party would be more attractive to independents and conservative Dems.

James

I personally watched Mitt literally save the 2002 Winter Olympics. $379 million in debt with a bribery crisis and a serious loss of public/sponsership support, the future was so bleak that break even seemed inpossible. There is NO OTHER CANDIDATE in the race that could have saved the Olympics from the financial mess the Mitt inherited. He didn't blame it on the prior leadership, but started as a master surgeon trimming the budget and working the corporate world for sponsership. The final result was a successful Olympics with millions in profits. Flip-flops? How many flip-flops have the tea party had? First, Pawlenty. Then Bachman. Then Perry. Then Cain. Then Gingrich. Then Santorium. Then back to Gingrich. The message is anybody but Romney. I understand their right to not want to vote for a member of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints (mormon) or the change of views on issues. But Newt has had plenty of changes that don't bother them and has more baggage than a Southwest airline flight. No matter to the Tea Party. My voting order is as follows: Romney (the only one capapbe of solving the financial mess), Santorium, Paul, Obama, and Gingrich. The Tea Party was organized (per their leader for fiscal sanity in the government and to not meddle with social issues). A former Tea Party member, I no longer support their cause because they have mislead the public and have not held to their orginal stated goals. Sorry to say, but if Newt is elected, my vote for the first time in my lifetime will be democrat. Changed mind is one thing, hyprocrisy is another. If Romney were such a flip flopper, he would renounce Romneycare to get the Republican nomination, but he has held firm that it is NOT the same as Obamacare, and stated that in a free society, if you don't like what he stands for or if his success bothers you, you shouldn't vote for him. Seems more honest than most candidates....

Jean

You are straight on about the Olympics. That asset is not mentioned much, but needs to be stressed. There is only one one who can get us out our mess and trouble in America. His name is Willard Mitt Romney. He will prevail.

Jean

A third party is no option. It just means four more years and our country will be a weak, socialist nation. At this point we have only one option to save her and that is where Mr Romnet steps in. We will be a strong nation under God able to build back the power that we once had.

debbie seay

housin soon for dissents by FEMA says alex jones (infowars dot com)

Jean

*Romney

Pollster

So awesome...everyone who crapped on this poll...just prove that most dont understand polling. this poll has been comfirmed by at least 5 other polls. Dont hate the player, hate the game.

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