Public Policy Polling, the Democratic-leaning robo-surveying firm that seems to do pretty good work in Florida, plans to release a poll tomorrow that, according to some preview tweets, suggests Mitt Romney will walk away with the nomination here.
"When you know it's over...Mitt is the first choice of Tea Party voters in Florida, 33-31 over Newt," PPP tweeted earlier this evening. Also, the firm surveyed the attacks on Romney's business record. Survey says: "70/18 favorability for Romney's business record in Florida...these attacks just aren't resonating with Republican voters."
It just posted its analysis:
Mitt Romney's in a strong position to win this weekend in South Carolina, and he's in an even stronger position to follow it up with a big win in Florida. Our first Sunshine State poll of 2012 finds Romney with a 15 point lead at 41% to Newt Gingrich's 26% with Rick Santorum at 11%, Ron Paul at 10%, Rick Perry at 4%, and Buddy Roemer at 1% rounding out the field.
Romney's lead expands further when you look only at voters whose minds are completely made up, to 48-27 over Gingrich. 71% of his voters say they'll definitely cast their ballot for him, compared to only 61% who say the same for Gingrich.
Romney has extremely impressive favorability numbers in the state with 68% of Republicans seeing him positively to only 24% with a negative opinion. Those are better numbers than we've found for him in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina polling. It's not just a splintered conservative vote that has him ahead in Florida. And even if most of his opponents were to drop out before the primary, Romney would still be in good shape. In hypothetical head to head match ups he leads Gingrich 50-38, Santorum 59-29, Perry 69-21, and Paul 76-17.
Two big things are working to Romney's advantage in Florida and elsewhere: voters are focused on the economy, and they're focused on beating Barack Obama. 69% of Republicans in Florida list either government spending or jobs and the economy as their top issue. Social issues and foreign policy are really on the back burner this year. Romney leads Gingrich 42-25 as the candidate voters most trust on the economy. And as much as he's been attacked for his business record it's proving to be an undeniable asset with primary voters- 70% have a favorable opinion of it to only 18% with a negative one.
Romney has also done a good job of, at worst, neutralizing social conservatives. He's leading Gingrich 39-30 with Santorum at 15% among evangelicals in Florida. When it comes to the candidate voters 'trust most on social issues like abortion and gay marriage' he actually leads Santorum 30-21 with Gingrich at 19%. Romney's even narrowly winning Tea Party voters with 33% to 31% for Gingrich, 16% for Santorum, and 10% for Paul.